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µÑ°, ¹ÙÀÌ ¾Æ¸Þ¸®Ä¿(Buy America)ÀÇ µ£ÀÌ´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁÀÇ Made in U.S.A.¿Í ´Ù¸¦ ¹Ù ¾ø´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁ´Â Àå»ç²ÛÀÌ¸é ¹ÙÀ̵çÀº Á¤Ä¡²ÛÀÌ´Ù. ÇÙ½ÉÀº º¸È£¹«¿ªÁÖÀÇ¿Í °íÂ÷¿øÀû ÀÚ±¹ÀÌÀÍ Ãß±¸¹æ½ÄÀÌ´Ù. 

 

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The situation in the United States... President Biden's inauguration and future prospects

A New Strategy for Changing the American Politics and Diplomatic Environment

-Ph.D. in International Area Studies

 

Entering

 

After the Trump administration's presidential election defeat, the Trump administration insisted on a fraudulent election, and in the U.S. Congress, to impede the progress of the Joe Biden-elect certification process, Trump supporters infiltrated Congress, killing 4 people and arresting 50 others. The incident occurred.

 

In the 200-year history of the United States as a leading democracy and model country, it is evaluated not only as a stain, but also as a democratic missing country. The United States has been in charge of maintaining international political order, such as military security and economy, around the world, and it is a reality that each country is exercising its military and economic influence.

 

Therefore, the inauguration of the administration of Joe Biden and its influence on the world order after that and the politics of the Republic of Korea. What kind of influence it will have on the security and economic situation, the G2 issue, which is the most impediment to the world order of the United States and maintains conflicting relations, issues in the Middle East such as Iran, the issue of restoration with the European Union, and the climate agreement. When analyzing issues such as re-entry to international organizations, resolving immigration restrictions, conflict in external relations, such as Iran's nuclear and North Korean nuclear issues, and the divided US integration issue, and the resolution of Corona 19, the US that Koreans see and the US where Americans live is different.

 

Understanding the history of the birth of America and their culture can help them understand their emotions. There were concerns that the support of Trump, who was defeated by the US presidential election, was expanding, and that it would be an obstacle to Joe Biden's political suspicion and promotion between the social democratic forces. Some obstacles have been removed, and the US Republican Party's position is expected to weaken and Trump's next run is expected to be eliminated. Wisdom policies are required after reviewing our countermeasures to anticipated changes in major fields such as US diplomatic and security policy, US-North Korea relations, US-China confrontation and trade policy.

 

The situation in the United States... President Biden's inauguration and future prospects

 

Intrusion into the US Capitol is missing democracy

 

President Trump's supporters in the US Congress, which is a model country for democracy around the world and has a history of 200 years, did not condone the results of the presidential election, insisted on illegal elections, and broke into the U.S. Congress and held a violent demonstration. The arrest of the dawn has left a big stain on the shameful American history, and it has been criticized by former US presidents and leaders around the world.

 

The four years of the Trump administration in the U.S. were seriously injured due to the lack of leadership and internal division. In particular, the international trade friction intensified by the selection of neo-classicalism as American priority and protection trade, such as restrictions on immigration, and defeat in the last presidential election due to conflicts with the international community The reason is that the unfair election was the cause of the public opinion, gathering supporters and invading the US Congress.

 

However, one of the most distinctive features of this presidential election is that the Republican Party has expanded and strengthened the loyalty of the Trump supporters, and confirmed that Trump and the Republican Party are healthy, but this incident raised criticism and accountability for violence within the Republican Party. There is a situation. Therefore, it was predicted that the period of Biden's administration would not be smooth, but this situation is leading to a weakening of political support from the Republican Party and the end of Trump's political affairs.

 

The international community demands the formation of a community through multilateralism and free trade.

 

Elect Joe Biden, who advocated ¡®Build Back Better¡¯ as the slogan, has a heavy duty to end Corona 19, to restore urgent economic recovery, to restore US leadership, to overcome division and to seal it.

 

In addition, the key is the restoration of free trade that maintains the order formed by the participation of most countries around the world's international institutional organizations such as GAIT/WTO due to multilateralism. It is also true that the Trump administration maintained international order as a conflicting relationship during its term of office due to economic conflicts such as military security and trade friction using tariffs in so-called Asia-Pacific policies such as China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.

 

Joe Biden is expected to revitalize free trade through multilateral restoration of steel. It is expected that the trade in IT products such as automobiles and software will be somewhat robust.

 

Diplomatic and security issues

 

A New Strategy for Changing the American Politics and Diplomatic Environment

 

Whenever a new administration appears after the presidential election, we mobilize personal connections to get closer to the new administration and the media are paying attention to the network.However, Korea is more than a traditional diplomatic line, but the diplomatic information of corporate bosses and employees who have advanced to overseas markets. It is an assessment that official diplomacy is poor because it is dependent on.

 

One example is that since the Trump administration is not a traditional Republican or Democratic mainstream, most countries do not have close personalities with politicians, diplomats, journalists, and entrepreneurs. It is also true that President Trump was an extension of the so-called "Jacksonism" that communicates with the public and the common people with the anger of alienated experts such as the unemployed, existing elite politicians, businessmen, and journalists.

 

President Trump incapacitated the existing elite and network in the United States, making it difficult for each country and network. With the emergence of the Joe Biden administration, a network of political relations, academia, media, and entrepreneurs from each country is expected to operate. However, the US diplomacy with the United States, which relies on individual and prejudiced ties, is facing its limits, so it seems that a new strategy and inspection are needed.

 

Wisdom and strategic diplomacy

 

The United States is a global leader with the Cold War, post-Cold War, and liberal order maintenance after World War II. In the background of the leader, the question and criticism of imperialism are raised, but the leader's capacity will continue. The reason is that world trade and order are being operated based on the UN-IMF-World Bank-dollar standard system established by the United States.

 

Therefore, we recognize our attitudes and perspectives as the strongest nation in politics, economy, military, and culture, and the United States is based on a military complex, endless wars, arms sales against allies, securing favorable markets, contributing to geopolitical hegemony, etc. Recognizing the snob-like United States, it should be seen as a business relationship of economic interest. Shili's diplomatic relations are necessary with wisdom that provides snob-like realities and emphasizes the cause of a good and deep alliance.

 

US-North Korea Relations and North Korean Nuclear Issue

 

It is necessary to examine whether or not it has developed a persuasion and logic for the peace process on the Korean peninsula by targeting only the good US, and it has become a logic that North Korea will be incorporated into the international economy through peace on the Korean peninsula and multilateral trade in Northeast Asia through the North American denuclearization negotiations with the United States. If North Korea's real interests arise, the peace process between the two Koreas will eventually be shared. This policy of communication with the United States seems to be absent.

 

Changes in international organizations in the United States

 

It is a change in the diplomatic environment due to the Trump administration's withdrawal from international organizations and the severance of existing domestic connections with countries. In the future, the global organization's strategy on climate change and policies on the use of fossil fuels and new and renewable energy-oriented policies are becoming the norm in each country's policy change, but Joe Biden rejoined the international organization that the world order leader withdrew from the United States. Seems to restore it.

 

In addition, the restoration of the European Union, the military of the US-China relations using Taiwan. In economic control and the alliance with the US-Japan, it is expected that strategic policies should be implemented by strengthening the ROK-US alliance. As Joe Biden, who was the vice president of the Obama administration, will develop most of its foreign strategies, it is unlikely that the Joe Biden administration will continue to implement policies, but most of them will be maintained in a large framework.

 

Changes in US security and external security environment

 

Iran's capture of the Korean Chemie and changes in the external environment

 

In the 2015 Obama administration's policy to reduce foreign expenditures for the withdrawal and enactment of troops in the Middle East, which faced a political crisis due to the U.S. economic recession, then Vice President Joe Biden strategically agreed to the Iranian nuclear agreement through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) JCPOA. (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

 

At that time, the United States decided to stop developing nuclear weapons and receive international surveillance of military facilities against Iran, and to solve the problem of nuclear conflict in the Middle East by phasing out the international containment measures prohibiting enrichment of more than 3.75% of uranium and holding only up to 300 kg of low-enriched uranium. I ordered it.

 

However, when Trump implemented a strong regulatory policy against Iran, Iran resisted this and withdrew from the nuclear agreement in May 2018. Iran wants to restore its Middle East policy, demanding the implementation of a nuclear agreement and economic recovery from the Biden government.

 

However, it is also of interest to improve policies in the United States in which Israel and the Holocaust do not recur. The Moon Jae-in administration maintained a rather well-maintained diplomatic relationship due to the smooth trade relations between Iran and crude oil imports.However, on January 4, 2021, the Korean Chemie vessel was shut down because of the fact that Trump had blocked the enactment to be paid to Iran. In the end, it can be said that what was captured was a strategy for Bae Bae Jin just before the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration.

 

US-China conflict

 

It is that the priority of the US policy in China is to be lowered in the G2 status by economic sanctions against China. Trump is strategically using retaliatory tariffs and military superiority over China, using Taiwan, but has barely achieved any effectiveness in his tenure. Because it was reduced to an instant and spontaneous response, there was no strategy. But there are three pitfalls of Biden's policy.

 

First, the trap of the alliance. This is a way that the strong does not help the weak, but uses the weak to achieve interests, so that Korea is able to build a clean network that excludes China from communication and semiconductor technology, economic block, diplomacy, and military. It seems that it will contribute to one part, so in the end, the problem between Korea and China is likely to worsen than the Trump administration.

 

Second, it is the Buy America trap. It's no different from Trump's Made in U.S.A. Trump is a merchant, while Biden is a politician. The key is protectionism and the way to pursue higher-level national interests.

Third, it is a trap of the green economy. Because of the technological hegemony and energy-related wars, we cannot take the initiative without securing advanced technologies, which is likely to cause difficulties in our renewable energy production and sales. Therefore, it will use neighboring alliances to attack and pressure with technology and finance, and pressure to regulate the use of communication equipment, semiconductors, and Android, economic blocks using economic prosperity networks, expansion of quad blocks, and mid-range missile envelopment networks.

 

China is a strategy to overtake 90% of the US by 2025 and the US between 2029 and 2035, with Xi Jinping's long-term power. In that case, the countries that have recognized the supremacy of the United States will have both sides with China and the United States, or strengthen relations with China.

 

If the US took 10 years to kill Japan, it is analyzed that Biden's old age makes it impossible to reappoint China and that it is difficult to kill China in a short period of time. We need a practical and wise diplomatic strategy with China.

 

North American relations

 

The Trump administration has seen many changes in North and South-North relations. Again, the Joe Biden administration is expected to change its approach to North American and inter-Korean relations. The Biden administration is expected to use a policy of patience that waits for the so-called North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons and establish a peace process environment, which parallels sanctions and support for North Korea as in the last Obama administration.

 

Therefore, since inter-Korean relations are also expected to change significantly, the US policy toward North Korea is the US policy that the two Koreas should work together, and a new strategy is needed as provocations or changes in the security environment are expected in April or May.

 

Maintenance of the US-Japan alliance and the impact of the Korea-Japan relationship

 

In the same vein as the Trump administration, the Biden administration is expected to continue the US-Japan alliance. It is evaluated based on the equal cooperation of the US-Japan alliance, such as the Peace and Security Act promoted by the Abe administration and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Indo-Pacific Initiative. Manages China's challenges, sees the four strategic tasks of global strategy, economy, technology and governance as the only alliance to agree on.

 

Therefore, it is recommended to join the United States. Meanwhile, it is wary of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) led by China. Therefore, Korea understands the strategy of the United States through the direction of cooperation between the United States and Japan, and builds a sense of the Korean presence at the point where the national interests of Korea intersect.

 

It is unclear whether the Tokyo Olympics will be held in Japan due to Corona 19, but diplomatic efforts and strategies are required, such as persuading the issue of the Korean Peninsula in the US-China competition through support and cooperation while cooperating with the proposal for joint participation between the two Koreas. In addition, Japan's cooperation in resolving the North Korean problem is necessary, so it is necessary to strengthen cooperation between Korea, the United States, and Japan and to induce cooperation from Japan. Diplomatic conflicts should not be maintained on the basis of the comfort sector with the pro-Japanese, which is a confrontation between Korea and Japan.

 

US-EU relations

 

Following Trump's four-year U.S. prioritization, unilateral diplomatic development has put more emphasis on Asian relations than Europe, such as the separation of the European Union and withdrawal from international organizations, but the Biden administration is likely to improve EU relations and induce Japanese participation.

 

While Trump's European Union and his wishes came to pass, the European Union is expected to increase its confrontation in the US-China strategy by improving relations with China and Russia. The EU itself is a great region if you look at various problems such as Blexit. It is also necessary to improve relations with Europe, which values ​​democracy, such as responding to issues such as climate change and human rights and cooperation.

 

Changes in the stance of trade policy in the international community including the United States and our response

 

During the Trump administration's four-year tenure, concerns have been raised that the rules-based international trade system, which has lasted for more than 70 years, may collapse due to a rapid change in trade policy based on America First. have. China, a strategic rival, is an expected country, but trade measures against allies such as the EU, Canada, and Mexico were unexpected.

 

The WTO, which has played a key role in enhancing the effectiveness of the implementation of the multilateral trade norms, has been made famous, and received distrust of the United States in multilateral trade. Biden's administration is expected to pursue a multilateral approach with an emphasis on trade between allies. The multilateral trade system is expected to be restored with the aim of inducing a change in China's system in a stance that is not very different from the Trump administration's trade policy line, which pursues fair trade that is not disadvantageous by the United States.

 

Biden's multilateralism, unlike Trump, pressures the other country on the basis of national power, regardless of whether it is an ally or not. It means breaking away from the bilateral relationship that has been pursuing economic interests. Ultimately, the aim is to effectively exert pressure on China by building multilateral alliances with allies and like-minded countries.

 

It also means multilateral solidarity for the purpose of maintaining U.S. hegemony. Biden's top priority in power is the recovery of the U.S. domestic economy and the recovery of manufacturing competitiveness after the COVID-19 pandemic, and trade policy has been pushed out of priority. In terms of discriminatory treatment against preferential treatment of US products, it is fundamentally understood as a policy of protectionism.

 

As a strong policy, environmental policy is more likely to act as a barrier to protection trade than to expand free trade. As a result of the presidential election pledge, re-entry to the Paris Convention and the introduction of a carbin adjustment lax by 2025 are expected to impose tariffs or quota-type trade measures on items that do not comply with environmental obligations among imported domestic products. In addition, it is expected that the restructuring of the supply chain for the high-tech sector will intensify.

 

conclusion

 

President Trump's presidential election and defeat were caused by the unfair election, and biden's policy promotion would not be free due to the invasion of Congress by loyal forces. With the criticism weakening the political position of the Republican Party and the end of Trump's political position, the atmosphere is turning that Biden's initial pledged policies will continue to proceed without a hitch.

 

Therefore, looking at the 7 issues for revitalizing the global economy in 2021,

 

First, the rapid commercialization of the COVID-19 vaccine is expected to promote normal economic activity.

 

Second, the establishment of a new government through full-scale Bide nomics, expansion and increase in fiscal expenditures, and expansion of infrastructure through multilateralism and full-scale eco-friendly promotion.,

 

Third, China's transition to growth strategy is to achieve a rapid paradigm shift, technological independence, and an open GDP of $20,000 to achieve potential activities in the domestic market through a bicyclic growth strategy.

 

Fourth, due to the constant global hegemony competition, the possibility of prolonging the conflict between the US and China and the negative impact of the hegemony competition may be widened, and the uncertainty in foreign policy is expected to be somewhat resolved by switching to a check method based on the principle of US popular policy.

 

Fifth, there is a high possibility that economic imbalances and political conflicts in Europe will intensify. The economic gap, imbalance, and conflict (refugees and climate change) are expected to spread due to Corona 19, and the economic gap between Northern and Southern Europe such as Germany is expected to widen.

 

Sixth, the imbalance in the global economic recovery is expected to prolong the COVID-19 outbreak due to the deepening of the vaccine supply imbalance according to the fiscal capacity of each country.

 

Seventh, it is necessary to strengthen international responses and efforts related to climate change.

 

 *Writer/Ph.D. in International Area Studies

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