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구매력과 수출 동반 감소로 소비자극 추경 경제 기로

김종찬 정치경제기자 | 기사입력 2021/07/27 [12:49]

 

▲ 홍남기 경제부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관.  ©뉴시스

 

코로나 반등 수출경제에 2분기 국내 구매력이 악화되고 수출이 2% 감소해 추경 투입과 정부 소비 의존에 한계가 드러났다.

 

한국은행 발표 올해 2분기 실질국내총소득(GDI)은 교역조건이 악화되며 0.6% 감소를 보였고,실질 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률이 0.7%에 그쳐 정체 상태를 보였다.

 

2분기 최대 증가폭인 추경 15조 투입을 제외한 정부소비는 건강보험급여비 지출 중심에 3.9% 증가이나, 수입이 2.8% 증가에 수출 2.0% 감소로 수입이 커졌다.

 

특히 순수출(수출-수입)에서 1분기 –0.3%포인트가 2분기에 –1.7%포인트로 하락폭이 급격히 커졌다.

 

1차 추경 15조원 투입의 소비자극에 의한 2분기 민간소비는 준내구재(의류) 서비스(오락문화, 음식숙박) 소비 침체 직후 반등소비로 3.5% 증가해 2008년 금융위기 직후 2009년 2분기 3.6%와 같은 탈출 초기를 재연했다.

 

정부의 1차 추경 이전 코로나가 약화된 1분기 민간소비는 1.2% 증가이다.

 

1차 추경이 투입된 2분기에 민간소비가 2분기 성장률을 1.6%포인트 끌어올렸지만, 순수출은 성장률을 1.7%포인트 깎아내렸고, 성장률은 ▲ 건설업 -1.4% ▲ 제조업 -1.2% ▲ 농림어업 -13.6% ▲ 전기가스수도업 –3.5% 등 모두 마이너스이고, 오직 ▲ 서비스업 1.9%만 성장하며 이중 운수업 9.3%가 코로나 특수 부작용을 보였다.

 

2분기에 민간소비의 기여도가 전분기 0.8%포인트서 2.3%포인트로 1.6%포인트 상승했으나, 정부 지출은 0.7%포인트였다.

 

2차 추경 35조원의 3분기에 코로나 4차 유행으로 마이너스 성장률 패턴이 더 커지며 민간소비 자극제로 작용해 물가상승 압박이 요인으로 보인다.

 

한국은행은 2분기 실질 GDP가 475조7625억원으로 전기대비 0.7% 증가이고 민간소비 증가율 3.5%로 올해 4%대 성장률 달성이 가능하다고 27일 발표했다.

 

한국은행은 수출 부진에 대해 “이전 3개 분기 연속으로 많이 증가한 이후 2분기에 2.0% 감소한 것이라 수출 부진이라 보긴 어렵다"고 부인했다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

 

*아래는 위 기사를 구글 번역으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]이다. [Below is the [full text] of an English article translated from the above article with Google Translate.]

 

Concomitant decrease in purchasing power and exports leads to a consumer-driven supplementary economy
-by Kim Jong-chan, political economy reporter
 
In the second quarter of the Corona rebound export economy, domestic purchasing power deteriorated and exports decreased by 2%, revealing the limits of the government's dependence on consumption and additional budget input.
 
Announced by the Bank of Korea In the second quarter of this year, real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased by 0.6% due to worsening terms of trade, and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained stagnant at only 0.7%.
 
Excluding supplementary budget input of 15 trillion won, which is the largest increase in the second quarter, government consumption increased by 3.9%, centered on health insurance benefit expenses, but imports increased by 2.8% and exports decreased by 2.0%.
 
In particular, in net exports (exports-imports), the drop sharply increased from -0.3 percentage points in the first quarter to -1.7 percentage points in the second quarter.
 
Private consumption in the second quarter, driven by the consumer stimulus of the first supplementary budget of KRW 15 trillion, increased by 3.5% due to a rebound in consumption immediately after a slump in consumption of semi-durable goods (clothing) and services (entertainment, culture, food and lodging), followed by a 3.6% increase in the second quarter of 2009 immediately after the 2008 financial crisis It reenacted the early stages of escape, such as
 
Private consumption increased by 1.2% in the first quarter, when the corona virus weakened before the government's first supplementary budget.
 
In the second quarter, when the first supplementary budget was introduced, private consumption raised the growth rate of the second quarter by 1.6 percentage points, but net exports cut the growth rate by 1.7 percentage points, and the growth rate was ▲ construction industry -1.4% ▲ manufacturing industry -1.2% ▲ agriculture, forestry and fishery industry -13.6% ▲ Electricity, gas and water industry -3.5%, etc. are all negative, and only ▲ service industry grew by 1.9%, of which 9.3% of transportation industry showed special side effects of Corona.
 
In the second quarter, the contribution of private consumption increased by 1.6 percentage points to 2.3 percentage points from 0.8 percentage points in the previous quarter, but government spending was 0.7 percentage points.
 
In the third quarter of the second supplementary budget of 35 trillion won, the negative growth pattern became bigger due to the fourth epidemic, acting as a stimulus for private consumption, and inflation pressure seems to be a factor.
 
The Bank of Korea announced on the 27th that real GDP in the second quarter was 47.76 trillion won, an increase of 0.7% from the previous quarter, and private consumption growth rate of 3.5% is possible to achieve 4% growth this year.
 
Regarding the sluggish exports, the Bank of Korea denied it, saying, "It is difficult to say that exports are sluggish as they decreased by 2.0% in the second quarter after a sharp increase in the previous three quarters."
기사제보 및 보도자료 119@breaknews.com
ⓒ 한국언론의 세대교체 브레이크뉴스 / 무단전재 및 재배포금지
 
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