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It is predicted that if the national debt ratio rises to 99.6% in 2045, the sovereign credit rating could fall by two stages.
As a result of analyzing major countries after the global financial crisis by the Korea Economic Research Institute, it was found that every 1%p increase in the national debt-to-GDP ratio, the national credit rating decreases by 0.03 steps.
The government recently predicted that the national debt ratio in 2045 is up to 99.6%, which is 61.5%p higher than 38.1% at the end of last year. If the government debt ratio rises according to this scenario, there will be pressure on the second stage of the sovereign credit rating.
According to Han Kyung-yeon, the red light on fiscal soundness has recently lit up as Korea's national debt ratio exceeded the potential margin line of 40%. The national debt ratio, which remained at 36% of GDP until 2018, increased to 38.1% last year, and it rose to 43.9% as fiscal expenditures increased due to the impact of Corona 19 this year.
Some argue that the increase in national debt is inevitable, saying, ¡®The government has no choice but to increase fiscal expenditure due to the recent Corona 19 effect.
Regarding this, Gyeong-yeon Han said, "Even during the global financial crisis, some European countries faced a serious fiscal crisis while implementing large-scale economic stimulus measures." Explained.
In fact, during the global financial crisis in 2008, Spain invested a large budget on economic stimulus measures such as expanding public investment and supporting housing purchases in order to resolve the decline in growth rate and rise in the unemployment rate.
However, with the fiscal deficit accumulating without clear results, the ratio of national debt to GDP, which was only 39.4% of GDP in 2008, rose 2.2 times in four years to 85.7% in 2012. During the same period, Spain's sovereign credit rating fell nine levels from AAA to BBB-.
Similarly, Ireland, which had the highest national credit rating (AAA) in 2007, suffered a significant deterioration in fiscal soundness in 2008, as the government invested enormous amounts of public funds to relieve insolvent financial institutions. In 2010 alone, it recorded a fiscal deficit of 29.7% of GDP, and the national debt ratio increased 4.6 times over four years from 23.9% (2007) to 111.1% (2011). As questions about fiscal sustainability were raised, Ireland's credit rating was gradually lowered every year from 2009, and in 2011, it recorded BBB+, a total of 7 steps down from the highest rating.
On the other hand, Germany has temporarily increased its sovereign debt ratio since the global financial crisis, but through strict fiscal management, it has maintained its national credit rating at the highest level so far.
Germany's national debt ratio increased by 16.8%p for two years in 2010 compared to 2008 in Germany due to the global financial crisis. )', etc.
In Korea, the government recently announced the introduction of fiscal rules that contain management standards for the national debt ratio (60% compared to GDP) and integrated fiscal balance (¡â3% compared to GDP). However, the standards of fiscal rules, such as the upper limit of the national debt ratio, which are too high compared to the current level, are loose, and there is no sanctions against violations of the rules, so it is concerned that there will be a substantial effect in securing fiscal soundness.
If the national debt ratio increases rapidly, it will lead to a decline in confidence in the country's debt repayment capacity and outflow of foreign investment capital, increasing the likelihood that the entire country will face a liquidity crisis. Accordingly, major credit rating agencies such as S&P use fiscal soundness as a major factor in determining credit ratings along with macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rate and current account.
Han Kyung-yeon analyzed the impact of four variables, including the national debt ratio, per capita GDP, inflation rate, and current account balance, on the national credit rating of the following year, targeting 41 countries around the world from 2008 to 2018.
As a result, when the national debt ratio increases by 1%p, the national credit rating decreases by 0.03 steps, and when the per capita GDP increases by 10 times, the national credit rating rises by 6.2 steps. The national debt ratio and consumer inflation rate are negative (-) ), GDP per capita, and current account were found to have a positive (+) relationship with the national credit rating.
¡°Recently, Korea¡¯s government debt level is lower than that of major countries, and it is recognized that it is okay, but overconfidence in fiscal soundness is prohibited,¡± said Chu Gwang-ho, head of the economic policy department. It is difficult to restore the damaged financial soundness, so it is necessary to manage it well on a regular basis.¡±
He added, ¡°I am worried that not only the absolute value of the national debt ratio, but also the rate of increase is too fast,¡± he said. ¡°As Korea enters an aging society, the demand for welfare expenditures is expected to increase rapidly. It should be supplemented and systematically managed the national finances.¡±