 ▲ 한국은행로고 ©탁지훈 기자 |
지난해 소비 감소로 판매신용이 급등락하며 가계대출 증가율이 가계신용을 추월해 자산 투자에 거품을 보인다.
지난해 4분기 부동산·주식에 '부채투자'가 90조원 커지며 가계신용(가계대출+판매신용)이 1천726조1천억원을 기록했으나, 신용판매는 2천억원 감소했다.
한국은행이 23일 공개 통계는 판매신용에서 2019년 4분기에 6.3% 상승(5조6천억원, 전년동기대비)가 지난해 4분기 2천억원으로 급감했고, 전분기대비 –0.2%의 2천억 감소로 나타났다.
가계신용은 지난해 4분기에 125조8천억으로 전년동기대비 7.9% 증가이고 2019년 4분기가 63조6천억의 4.1% 증가이나, 가계대출은 지난해 4분기 8.3% 증가(125조6천억원)이고 2019년 4.0%(57조9천억) 증가를 보이며 가계대출 증가세를 추월했다.
판매신용은 2019년 3분기 5.1%(전분기대비) 4분기 6.3%의 높은 증가율이 지난해 코로나 초기 1분기에 1.6%(전년동기비 –6.4%) 급락했다가 재정확장과 통화공급이 집중된 3분기 5.5% 급등하고 4분기에 0.2%(전분기대비 –0.2%)로 급락했다.
가계신용 증가세는 지난해 4분기 전년동기비 7.9% 증가 이전 2019년 3분기 3.9%부터 4분기 4.1%, 2020년 1분기 4.6%, 2분기 5.2%, 3분기 7.0%로 높아지는 추세이다.
가계대출 증가율은 가계신용과 대비해 지난해 1분기 격차(4.8%, 4.6% 증가)보다 4분기에 8.3%와 7.9%로 증가율 격차가 커져, 코로나에 ‘소비 축소 대출 증가’ 추세이다.
가계신용은 4분기 44조2천억원, 3분기 44조6천억원으로 연간 증가 125조8천억원이며 전년동기대비 7.9% 증가해 1천726조1천억원이다.
기타대출(신용대출)은 지난해 연간 57조8천억원 4분기 24조2천억원 증가로 모두 사상최대치며, 기타대출 잔액은 719조5천억원이고 주택담보대출 910조6천원을 합해 가계대출 잔액은 1천630조2천억원이다.
가계신용은 은행·보험사 등 금융기관 대출(가계대출)과 신용카드 사용액(판매신용)을 합친 가계부채이다.
주식투자에 연결된 증권회사 등 기타금융중개 대출이 연간 26조3천억원 증가에 코로나 초기 정부가 V자반등을 펴던 2분기에 10조3천억 급증하고 4분기에 다시 5조9천억 증가해 연말 잔액 193조2천억원이다.
주택담보대출(주담대)은 지난해 67조8천억원의 8.0% 급증한 910조6천억원이고, 4분기에 20조2천억원 증가했다.
비은행권의 주담대가 2019년에 전년대비 연중 –10조4천억원이 줄고 4분기에 –2조4천억원 감소와 달리, 지난해 1분기에 –2조8천억원 감소에서 4분기에 8천억원 증가로 돌아섰다.kimjc00@hanmail.net
*아래는 위 기사를 구글 번역기로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]이다. [Below is the [full text] of an English article translated from the above article with Google Translate.]
Increase in household loans amid sharp decline in consumption, overtaking credit asset bubble
Sales credit plummeted due to a decline in consumption last year, and the rate of increase in household loans surpassed that of household credit, causing a bubble in asset investment.
In the fourth quarter of last year,'debt investment' in real estate and stocks increased by 90 trillion won, and household credit (household loans + sales credit) recorded 176.2 trillion won, but credit sales decreased by 200 billion won.
Statistics released by the Bank of Korea on the 23rd showed that sales credit rose by 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (5.5 trillion won, compared to the same period last year) to 200 billion won in the fourth quarter of last year, and decreased by -0.2% to 200 billion won from the previous quarter.
Household credit increased by 7.9% from the same period last year to 125 trillion won in the fourth quarter of last year, while the fourth quarter of 2019 increased 4.1% from 63 trillion won, but household loans increased by 8.3% in the fourth quarter of last year (125 trillion won). In 2019, it increased by 4.0% (57 trillion KRW), overtaking the increase in household loans.
Sales credit increased from 5.1% in the third quarter of 2019 (from the previous quarter) to 6.3% in the fourth quarter, and fell sharply by 1.6% in the first quarter of last year (–6.4% from the same period last year), and then in the third quarter, when fiscal expansion and money supply were concentrated at 5.5. % Surged and plunged to 0.2% (-0.2% QoQ) in the fourth quarter.
The household credit growth trend is increasing from 3.9% in the third quarter of 2019 to 4.1% in the fourth quarter, 4.6% in the first quarter of 2020, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 7.0% in the third quarter before an increase of 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year.
Compared to household credit, the growth rate of household loans increased to 8.3% and 7.9% in the fourth quarter compared to the gap in the first quarter of last year (4.8% and 4.6% increase), leading to a “consumption reduction loan increase” in Corona.
Household credit amounted to KRW 44.2 trillion in the fourth quarter and KRW 44 trillion in the third quarter, an annual increase of 125 trillion KRW, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year to 177.2 trillion KRW.
Other loans (credit loans) all recorded an all-time high, with an annual increase of KRW 57 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of KRW 24 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year. It is 630 trillion won.
Household credit is a household debt that is the sum of loans from financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies (household loans) and the amount used by credit cards (sales credit).
Other financial brokerage loans, such as securities companies linked to stock investment, increased by KRW 26.3 trillion per year.In the first quarter of the corona, when the government launched a V-shaped rebound, it surged KRW 1.03 trillion in the second quarter, and in the fourth quarter, the balance at the end of the year increased to 193 trillion. It is 200 billion won.
Mortgage loans (main charge) increased by 8.0% from 67.8 trillion won last year to 910 trillion won, and increased by 20 trillion won in the fourth quarter.
Unlike the year-on-year decrease of -10.4 trillion won in 2019 and -2.4 trillion won in the fourth quarter, the leading charge of non-banking sectors declined from -2.8 trillion won in the first quarter of last year to an increase of 800 billion won in the fourth quarter.
